Nonwhites will make up at least 30.5 percent of the US electorate in 2020—and that using the flawed racial definitions used by the federal government—an increase of over seven percent from 2016, a fact which will make it doubly harder for Donald Trump to be re-elected president.
According to an analysis of the 2020 electorate produced by the Pew Research Center (“An early look at the 2020 electorate”), “nonwhites will account for a third of eligible voters – their largest share ever – driven by long-term increases among certain groups, especially Hispanics.”
At the same time, the Pew report continued, “one-in-ten eligible voters will be members of Generation Z, the Americans who will be between the ages 18 and 23 next year.”
The “Generation Z” group will therefore be 10 percent of the electorate, up from just 4 percent in 2016. The report says that these “post-Millennials are on track to be more racially and ethnically diverse than their predecessors: In 2020, Gen Z eligible voters are expected to be 55% white and 45% nonwhite, including 21% Hispanic, 14% black, and 4% Asian or Pacific Islander.”
By comparison, “the Boomer and older electorate” is projected to be about three-quarters white (74 percent).
The Pew report goes on to assert that the 2020 election “will mark the first time that Hispanics will be the largest racial or ethnic minority group in the electorate, accounting for just over 13% of eligible voters – slightly more than blacks.”
This change, the report says, “reflects the gradual but continuous growth in the Hispanic share of eligible voters, up from 9% in the 2008 presidential election and 7% in the 2000 election.
“The black eligible voter population has grown about as fast as the electorate overall, meaning their share has held constant at about 12% since 2000.”
In raw numbers, all of this means that a projected 32 million Hispanics will be eligible to vote in 2020, compared with 30 million blacks.
The population of Asians eligible to vote will reach an estimated 11 million in 2020, which is more than double the 5 million who were eligible to vote in 2000, accounting for 5 percent of the 2020 electorate.
“Taken together, this strong growth among minority populations means that a third of eligible voters will be nonwhite in 2020, up from about a quarter in 2000. This increase is at least partially linked to immigration and naturalization patterns: One-in-ten eligible voters in the 2020 election will have been born outside the U.S., the highest share since at least 1970.”
The report then goes on to state the obvious: that all this bodes trouble for Donald Trump’s 2020 re-election bid.
“The changing racial and ethnic composition of the electorate likely has political implications in part because nonwhites have long been significantly more likely than whites to back Democratic candidates.
“For instance, in the 2016 election, white voters favored Donald Trump by a 15 percentage point margin, while large majorities of blacks and Hispanics voted for Hillary Clinton.”
The increase in nonwhite voters is enough to swing state electoral colleges against Trump.
In Florida, for example, which Trump won by a margin of 112,911 votes over Clinton, the nonwhite voter increase is more than that number alone—never mind the fact that that state’s decision to allow convicted felons to vote has already added an additional 418,000 blacks to the electorate there.
The chances of Trump winning Florida a second time are therefore slim—and this effect, replicated only a few times, will make it impossible for a Republican victory in 2020.
More than ever, it is obvious that unless white Americans start geographically consolidating in a state or states, and start actively preparing for a racially-based breakup of the US, then they are going to be politically, economically, and ultimately, physically, removed from any presence in North America.