Al Gore’s 2006 prediction that “climate change” would flood the world by 2016 have now been shown to be another hysterical exaggeration—while a new study has shown that all the climate models used to predict global warming are hopelessly flawed.
On January 26, 2006, Gore predicted that there was only ten years left to save the earth from global warming. Speaking during a premiere of his infamous documentary An Inconvenient Truth, Gore told the Associated Press that “greenhouse gases from oil, coal, and other carbon emissions are trapping the sun’s heat in the atmosphere, resulting in a glacial meltdown that could flood much of the planet.
“And politicians and corporations have been ignoring the issue for decades, to the point that unless drastic measures to reduce greenhouse gases are taken within the next 10 years, the world will reach a point of no return,” Gore said.
His predictions included, according to that AP interview, no more ice caps at the Poles, a “new ice age in Europe, and massive flooding of regions in India, China, and elsewhere.”
January 27, 2016 passed without any of that happening. In fact the only really noticeable thing that happened was the release of a study by Patrick J. Michaels (a former research professor of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia, and now senior fellow in environmental studies at the libertarian Cato Institute) and Paul C. Knappenberger (assistant director of the Center for the Study of Science at the Cato Institute, and former staffer at the Virginia State Climatology Office at the University of Virginia).
The study, titled “Climate Models and Climate Reality: A Closer Look at a Lukewarming World” was released on December 15, 2015, found that the climate models used by scientists to predict how much human activities will warm the planet have been over-predicting global warming for the last six decades.
“Everyone by now is familiar with the ‘pause’ or ‘slowdown’ in the rate of global warming that has taken place over the past 20 years or so, but what few realize is that the observed warming rate has been beneath the model mean expectation for periods extending back to the mid-20th century—60+ years,” the study said.
The paper took observed global surface temperature warming rates since 1950, and compared them to the 108 official climate prediction models used by the US government.
The comparison showed that all the studies used to propagate the global warming theory were completely incorrect in their predictions.
“During all periods from 10 years (2006–2015) to 65 (1951–2015) years in length, the observed temperature trend lies in the lower half of the collection of climate model simulations,” the study found, “and for several periods it lies very close (or even below) the 2.5th percentile of all the model runs.”
The study also compared the officially-used climate models against satellite and weather balloon data collected from the mid-troposphere. Once again, every single official prediction was shown to be dramatically wrong.
“This is a devastating indictment of climate model performance,” the study concludes. “For periods of time longer than about 20 years, the observed trends from all data sources fall beneath the lower bound which contains 95 percent of all model trends and in the majority of cases, falls beneath even the absolute smallest trend found in any of the 102 climate model runs.”
“The amount of that over-prediction comports well with a growing body of scientific findings and growing understanding that the sensitivity of the earth’s surface temperature to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas levels… lies towards (and yet within) the low end of the mainstream assessed likely range.”