Science

Gore’s “10 Years to Save Earth” Flops

Al Gore’s 2006 prediction that “climate change” would flood the world by 2016 have now been shown to be another hysterical exaggeration—while a new study has shown that all the climate models used to predict global warming are hopelessly flawed.

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On January 26, 2006, Gore predicted that there was only ten years left to save the earth from global warming. Speaking during a premiere of his infamous documentary An Inconvenient Truth, Gore told the Associated Press that “greenhouse gases from oil, coal, and other carbon emissions are trapping the sun’s heat in the atmosphere, resulting in a glacial meltdown that could flood much of the planet.

“And politicians and corporations have been ignoring the issue for decades, to the point that unless drastic measures to reduce greenhouse gases are taken within the next 10 years, the world will reach a point of no return,” Gore said.

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His predictions included, according to that AP interview, no more ice caps at the Poles, a “new ice age in Europe, and massive flooding of regions in India, China, and elsewhere.”

January 27, 2016 passed without any of that happening. In fact the only really noticeable thing that happened was the release of a study by Patrick J. Michaels (a former research professor of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia, and now senior fellow in environmental studies at the libertarian Cato Institute) and Paul C. Knappenberger (assistant director of the Center for the Study of Science at the Cato Institute, and former staffer at the Virginia State Climatology Office at the University of Virginia).

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The study, titled “Climate Models and Climate Reality:  A Closer Look at a Lukewarming World” was released on December 15, 2015, found that the climate models used by scientists to predict how much human activities will warm the planet have been over-predicting global warming for the last six decades.

“Everyone by now is familiar with the ‘pause’ or ‘slowdown’ in the rate of global warming that has taken place over the past 20 years or so, but what few realize is that the observed warming rate has been beneath the model mean expectation for periods extending back to the mid-20th century—60+ years,” the study said.



The paper took observed global surface temperature warming rates since 1950, and compared them to the 108 official climate prediction models used by the US government.

The comparison showed that all the studies used to propagate the global warming theory were completely incorrect in their predictions.

“During all periods from 10 years (2006–2015) to 65 (1951–2015) years in length, the observed temperature trend lies in the lower half of the collection of climate model simulations,” the study found, “and for several periods it lies very close (or even below) the 2.5th percentile of all the model runs.”

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The study also compared the officially-used climate models against satellite and weather balloon data collected from the mid-troposphere. Once again, every single official prediction was shown to be dramatically wrong.

“This is a devastating indictment of climate model performance,” the study concludes. “For periods of time longer than about 20 years, the observed trends from all data sources fall beneath the lower bound which contains 95 percent of all model trends and in the majority of cases, falls beneath even the absolute smallest trend found in any of the 102 climate model runs.”

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“The amount of that over-prediction comports well with a growing body of scientific findings and growing understanding that the sensitivity of the earth’s surface temperature to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas levels… lies towards (and yet within) the low end of the mainstream assessed likely range.”

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6 Comments

  1. Europe is being flooded, the US and the rest for sure. I’m not talking water, but vermin, from distant dusty lands. At least a plague of locusts can become a delicacy!

     
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  2. There aren’t many honest academics and researchers and thinkers. But thank heavens for them. Imagine if the whole world had nothing but politicians and PR people and professional liars.

     
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  3. `Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it whether it exists or not, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedy`. ~Ernest Benn

     
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  4. The essential and perhaps deliberate mistake the government scientists made is not in predicting temperature variation, but in overestimating the feedback mechanism associated with the temperature rise. The government scientists set a 3 times multiplier to the feedback for every 1 degree increase in temperature. Reality is substantially different to the assumption.

    Feedbacks are related to the way the Earth reacts to the direct warming effect of the carbon dioxide. Back in 1980 the government scientists set (without any real evidence) a threefold amplification factor to these feedbacks. In essence these scientific charlatans claimed that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide will increase evaporation from the oceans and the extra water vapor will trap more heat, since water vapor is a greenhouse gas. This will cause even greater heating etc, etc, etc Ad nauseam. In fact the extra warming just creates more clouds without any substantial increase in temperature, so the government scientists deliberately overestimated the feedbacks by a factor of 6.

    A full discussion requires many more words and this is not the place to give them. It is noteworthy though that no skeptic or otherwise would disagree with the assumption that more carbon dioxide leads to an increase in temperature, we do not agree with their assumptions regarding the feedbacks. The government scientists and the media ignore the feedbacks and focus only on the direct effect of carbon dioxide. We only see talk about shrinking polar ice caps, bad weather and the state of the planet Venus today.

    In my neck of the woods we have had a hot spell – hotter than normal – and some say it is the direct result of global warming. Today is wet and very cold, much colder than is normal for summer. We must be experiencing global cooling.

     
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  5. Another hoax reason for the Ontario Liberals to introduce a Carbon Tax raising taxes on fuel and everything that gets transported. The only good thing is that the voters who elected this government will also be paying their share of this useless tax grab. Just another Liberal fiasco.

     
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