Health Actuaries: Obamacare Rates Will Soar

The US Society of Actuaries (SOA) has predicted that due to sicker patients joining the coverage pool when the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) comes into effect, medical claims per member will rise 32 percent in individual plans, and in some states costs will rise as much as 80 percent.

Under the law, insurers cannot deny coverage or charge higher premiums to people because of pre-existing medical conditions.


In a special report issued on the topic titled “Cost of the Future Newly Insured under the Affordable Care Act (ACA),” the SOA found that the healthcare reform would have three major impacts:

“After three years of exchanges and insurer restrictions, the percentage of uninsured nationally will decrease from 16.6 percent to between 6.8 and 6.6 percent, compared to pre-ACA projections.

“Under the ACA, the individual non-group market will grow 115 percent, from 11.9 million to 25.6 million lives; 80 percent of that enrollment will be in the Exchanges.

“The non-group cost per member per month will increase 32 percent under ACA, compared to pre-ACA projections.

“Our analysis also indicates that while high risk pools generally have few enrollees, the cost per individual is very high. Movement of the high risk pool individuals into the non-group Exchange will generally create a significant increase in cost.”

It warned that healthcare costs would rise as follows per state:

Alabama 60.3%;

Alaska 19.2%;

Arizona 22.2%;

Arkansas 40.9%;

California 61.6%;

Colorado 39.1%;

Connecticut 28.8%;

Delaware 29.3%;

D.C. 51.9%;

Florida 26.5%;

Georgia 27.6%;

Hawaii 21.9%;

Idaho 62.2%;

Illinois 50.8%;

Indiana 67.6%;

Iowa 9.7%;

Kansas 18.9%;

Kentucky 34.1%;

Louisiana 28.6%;

Maine 4.1%;

Maryland 66.6%;

Massachusetts -12.8%;

Michigan 25.8%;

Minnesota 18.9%;

Mississippi 43.2%;

Missouri 58.8%;

Montana 20.1%;

Nebraska 30.8%;

Nevada 29.2%;

New Hampshire 36.8%;

New Jersey -1.4%;

New Mexico 34.9%;

New York -13.9%;

North Carolina 13.5%;

North Dakota 8.4%;

Ohio 80.9%;

Oklahoma 29.3%;

Oregon 14.3%;

Pennsylvania 28.0%;

Rhode Island -6.6%;

South Carolina 36.8%;

South Dakota 29.0%;

Tennessee 46.4%;

Texas 33.8%;

Utah 28.4%;

Vermont -12.5%;

Virginia 28.4%;

Washington 13.7%;

West Virginia 35.3%;

Wisconsin 80.0%;

Wyoming 31.6%.

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