Some 75 percent of registered Republican “Latinos” voted against Donald Trump in the Texas primaries, providing a lesson in America’s shifting racial demographic realities—and a foretaste of the massive national election obstacle which awaits him should he succeed in winning the party’s nomination.
A Dallas polling station sign in English and Spanish tells the tale of racial demographic shift in Texas.
Despite winning seven of the eleven states up for grabs during yesterday’s “Super Tuesday” primaries, Trump does not yet have either the nomination or the national election in the bag, as a detailed examination of the turnout demonstrates.
In fact, the strong Latino anti-Trump vote was the factor which allowed Ted Cruz to win in Texas, where he polled 1,230,159 votes to Trump’s 752,659.
Some 35 percent of Republican-registered Latinos in Texas voted for Ted Cruz, while 27 percent voted for Marco Rubio, adhering to an expected racial divide based upon the facts that Trump’s competitors both have “Latino” backgrounds and that that Trump has run an anti-illegal immigration campaign—an issue which directly affects the vast majority of Hispanics currently in the US.
A record 2.8 million votes were cast in the Republican primary in Texas. Among Republicans, 10 percent of the electorate in Texas are Latino, and the state has been majority nonwhite for several years, with the most recent US Census Bureau figures reporting that the state is currently only 45 percent white.
It is no coincidence that the areas in Texas which reported the strongest Trump votes were in the southwest—which is also the whitest remaining part of that state.
The US Census Bureau reports that on a national level, America is currently only 63.7 percent white. This means that, as happened in Texas, a combination of white liberals and racial block voting by nonwhites presents Trump’s most serious challenge.
This is particularly relevant, as Texas has demonstrated, in states which hold the largest number of Electoral College votes. These are the states with the largest populations—such as California—and which are also the most heavily nonwhite, and therefore the most anti-Trump.
Finally, it would be a mistake to presume that Trump has the Republican nomination in the bag after the Super Tuesday primaries. With 1,237 delegate votes needed to secure the nomination, Trump now has 285, compared to Cruz’s 161, and Rubio’s 87. (The other two candidates still in the race, Kasich and Carson, have 25 and 8 respectively.)
Cruz’s victories yesterday in Texas, Alaska, and Oklahoma means that he is still definitely in the race, especially with large (and anti-Trump) state primaries such as California (which votes in early June) still to come.
Trump supporters seeking to celebrate his primary victory would be well-advised to be restrained, and even then, to bear in mind the massive racial electoral hurdle he faces even if he does win the Republican nomination.
The full Republican Super Tuesday results are as follows:
Alabama: Donald Trump (won) 28 delegates, 43.4%; Ted Cruz 2 delegates, 21.1%.
Alaska: Ted Cruz (won) 12 delegates, 36.4%; Donald Trump 11 delegates, 33.5%; Marco Rubio 5 delegates, 15.1%.
Arkansas: Donald Trump (won) 13 delegates, 32.7%; Ted Cruz 9 delegates, 30.5%; Marco Rubio 6 delegates, 25.0%.
Georgia: Donald Trump (won) 36 delegates, 38.8%; Marco Rubio 11 delegates, 24.5%; Ted Cruz 14 delegates, 23.6%.
Massachusetts: Donald Trump (won) 22 delegates, 49.0%; John Kasich 8 delegates, 18.1%; Marco Rubio 8 delegates, 17.9%; Ted Cruz 4 delegates, 9.6%.
Minnesota: Marco Rubio (won) 12 delegates, 36.8%; Ted Cruz 12 delegates, 28.9%; Donald Trump 8 delegates, 21.2%.
Oklahoma: Ted Cruz (won) 14 delegates, 34.4%; Donald Trump 12 delegates, 28.3%; Marco Rubio 11 delegates, 26.0%.
Tennessee: Donald Trump (won) 30 delegates, 38.9%; Ted Cruz 12 delegates, 24.7%; Marco Rubio 2 delegates, 21.2%.
Texas: Ted Cruz (won) 57 delegates, 43.7%; Donald Trump 20 delegates, 26.8%.
Vermont: Donald Trump (won) 6 delegates, 32.7%; John Kasich 6 delegates, 30.4%.
Virginia: Donald Trump (won) 17 delegates, 34.7%; Marco Rubio 16 delegates, 31.9%; Ted Cruz 8 delegates, 16.9%; John Kasich 5 delegates, 9.4%; Ben Carson 3 delegates, 5.9%.
On the Democratic side, there were few surprises as Hilary Clinton went on to take an unassailable lead in that party’s nomination race.
Hilary Clinton’s racial demographic support base is clearly illustrated by the background faces in this TV screenshot declaring her victories in the Super Tuesday primaries.