Donald Trump’s landslide victory in yesterday’s Republican state primaries yesterday has upturned all predictions and put him within clear sight of winning the party’s nomination—and possibly even the presidential election.
The vote also confirmed that Trump has managed to mobilize a large number of white previous non-voters—which if maintained at the same rate seen yesterday, could even place him within reach of the White House.
Trump’s victories in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island, saw him sweep every single county in all those states, a feat never before seen in US politics.
Trump’s official delegate count after those victories is 950, including the 17 Pennsylvanian delegates awarded on a “winner takes all” basis.
However, Pennsylvania’s complicated delegate nomination process has another 54 delegates who are elected on a “pledged” basis—that is, voters had to vote for a candidate who promised to vote for Trump at the Republican National Convention, rather than Trump by name.
Trump took 29 of these extra delegates, which means that his real delegate total now stands at 979.
This is only 258 delegates short of the 1,237 needed to win the nomination on the first round.
If the voting patterns shown yesterday hold true for the remaining primary contests, it is more than possible for Trump to now succeed in getting past the 1,237 number.
According to current opinion polls, Trump is expected to take at least 40 more delegates from the upcoming contests in Washington, Oregon, and New Mexico, which share delegates by vote proportion. This would bring Trump to a total of 1,019 delegates, or 218 delegates short of the required total.
Trump is currently an underdog in three winner-take-all states in the West and the Plains: Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska.
However, the two largest states—in terms of delegates—yet to come are Indiana and California. Both are also winner-take-all states, and together they have 229 delegates up for grabs.
All opinion polls show Trump taking both Indiana and California—which means he will easily reach the 1,237 delegate count with those states alone.
It is worth bearing in mind that the opinion polls are all based on interviews carried out before last weekend’s “pact” between Ted Cruz and John Kasich. News of that alliance—which was clear evidence of the establishment’s collusion to stop Trump—appears to have greatly backfired, and doubtless played a role in the much larger than expected pro-Trump turnout in yesterday’s primaries.
For example, the opinion polls in Pennsylvania predicted a Trump vote of between 45 and 51 percent, whereas his actual tally on the day was 57 percent.
If this rise holds true for the remaining primaries—and there is no reason why it should not—then Trump’s path to the nomination appears at last to have opened up once and for all.
The greater challenge, however, still lies ahead. As pointed out earlier, due to the massive increase in nonwhite voter numbers in America, Trump has to mobilize in excess of 65 percent of the white voters in order to beat any Democratic opponent in a presidential election.
This is because the Democrats—most likely in the person of Hilary Clinton—will be able to rely on the vast majority of the black and Hispanic vote, plus the hardcore leftwing white vote.
Although the hard left white vote is a minority, it is still a significant minority, and, together with the nonwhite bloc vote, was responsible for putting Barack Obama into the White House on two occasions.
Therefore, the original prediction still remains valid: Trump can only win a presidential election if he mobilizes 65 percent of the white vote.
Furthermore, a Trump presidency will have to address the question of both illegal and legal nonwhite immigration to the US. Given that in excess of 800,000 Hispanics are being added to the eligible voter total every year, the number of anti-Trump voters will be even higher in four years’ time.