Trump’s Nonwhite Nonvoter Problem

The Washington Post is the first major “mainstream” media outlet to admit that Donald Trump—or any candidate who does not bow to nonwhite political demands—faces a nearly impossible task of winning the US Presidential election.

Previously, only the New Observer had pointed out that the US’s current racial voter demography, combined with the electoral college system, posed huge hurdles which might only just be overcome with an unprecedentedly high white voter turnout.

map-01

Trump’s electoral college problem: he can win all the states marked in red, and still lose the election to Clinton.

In a May 2016 article titled “Republicans have a massive electoral map problem that has nothing to do with Donald Trump,” the Washington Post said that a likely Republican Party loss in November has to do with “demographic problems centered on the GOP’s inability to win any large swath of nonwhite voters.”

The Washington Post points out that

“many Republicans—particularly in Washington—are already preparing to blame a loss this fall, which many of them view as inevitable, on the divisiveness of Trump. That’s not entirely fair to Trump, though.”

The election map problems, the article continues, have “very, very little to do with Trump or even Cruz.

“Instead they are, largely, demographic problems centered on the GOP’s inability to win any large swath of nonwhite voters.

“New Mexico, a state in which almost half the population is Latino, is the ur-example here.

“In 2004, George W. Bush won the Land of Enchantment in his bid for a second term. (His margin over John Kerry was 588 votes.)

“Eight years later, Barack Obama won the state by 10 points over Mitt Romney; neither side targeted it in any meaningful way.

“What has become increasingly clear is that any state with a large or growing nonwhite population has become more and more difficult for Republicans to win. Virginia and North Carolina, long Republican strongholds, have moved closer and closer to Democrats of late. (Obama won both states in 2008 and carried Virginia in 2012.),” the Washington Post said.





“At the same time as these states have grown friendlier to Democrats, there are very few states that are growing increasingly Republican. Wisconsin and Minnesota are two, but neither is moving rapidly in Republicans’ favor just yet.

“What you are left with then is an electoral map in which the Democratic nominee begins at a significant advantage over the Republican one. (It is the obverse of the massive Republican electoral college edge of the 1980s.) And that edge is totally distinct from any individual candidate and his/her strengths or weaknesses. “

“The Republican map problem goes deeper than Trump — or any one candidate. Blaming Trump for a loss this November not only misses the point but could ensure that Republicans are doomed to repeat history in 2020.”

The article goes on to analyze the math of the problem:

“Why is that important? Because if Clinton wins Florida and carries the 19 states (plus D.C.) that have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in each of the last six elections, she will be the 45th president. It’s that simple.

“And here’s the underlying math. If Clinton wins the 19 states (and D.C.) that every Democratic nominee has won from 1992 to 2012, she has 242 electoral votes. Add Florida’s 29 and you get 271. Game over.

“The Republican map is decidedly less friendly. There are 13 states that have gone for the GOP presidential nominee in each of the last six elections. But they only total 102 electorate votes. That means the eventual nominee has to find, at least, 168 more electoral votes to get to 270. Which is a hell of a lot harder than finding 28 electoral votes.”

The Washington Post’s base math is completely correct. However, they have ignored the one factor which could change the map, and that is a dramatically increased white voter turnout.

If Trump manages to boost white voter turnout to an unprecedented high, then he stands a chance of winning the key swing states he needs—Ohio, Indiana or Virginia—to win the electoral college.

The only real question of the upcoming election is therefore how many whites will turn out to vote.

However, even then, realists should bear in mind that the racial electoral map is growing darker with each year, and at least 800,000 new nonwhite voters are added to the voters’ list every twelve months.

These new voters are all the product of legal immigration, and if Trump does win a first term—and does not address this critical issue—there may not be a second term.


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27 Comments

  1. Just like in the UK. All set against us in elections, especially with the corrupt postal voting system, of which neither the government or the Electoral Commission will change. Both traitorous scum!

  2. Any contrived massive change in demography such as that ongoing in the US and Europe is bound to change the political landscape. If the scales don’t balance, it is because someone loaded one side and is so doing, created a demographic time bomb. The Natural Order of things is being tampered with. Whether it happens by design or pure reclessness the outcome will be the same. With the racial terraforming that is taking place in the US and EU, my advice (for what it’s worth) is, plan for the worst. The worst wars are Civil Wars!

    1. Same in the UK. UKIP got just under 4 million votes at the last election and only have 1 MP, while the SNP in Scotland got less votes and have 54 MPs! Talk about democracy!

  3. Exactly what I was about to say, antieu. Local elections in our area have been a total farce for years. Many locals no longer turn out to vote (blamed on `voter apathy.`) as the results have become a foregone conclusion. Another scam was / is the moving of boundaries also introduced in our area some years ago.
    UK democracy my backside ! It no longer exists ….. thanks to Blair and his cohorts.

  4. The Black Belt arches from MS to NC, yet every state it crosses is solidly Republican. The blacks block-vote Democrat; the whites settle their differences in the primary and block-vote Republican. Even the Berniecucks are realizing that the Democratic Party hates all white men; large numbers of them might vote for Trump.

    In a multi-racial society, as in prison, you leave your liberal values at the door and stick with your own race if you want to survive. It would neither surprise nor trouble me if David Duke wins the Republican nomination and the 2024 election with 0% of the non-white vote, as hundreds of truckloads of ballots from non-white precincts accidentally catch fire.

  5. There are some coloured people in Sweden who say that they vote for the anti-immigration party Sverigedemokraterna (The Sweden Democrats) despite they don´t quite enjoy it. They do that because they already have a Swedish permanent residence permit or citizenship and because they just like some indigenous voters will suffer if the society breaks down.

    This is an archived article from the local mainstream news web site http://www.marsta.nu which provides readers with local news from the Stockholm suburb Märsta:

    Valet 2014: Därför röstar jag på Sverigedemokraterna” (Election 2014: That´s why I vote for the Sweden Democrats)
    Publicerad: 09 september 2014 kl 18:38 (Published: 09 September 2014, 6:38 PM)

    http://archive.is/Y5YaO

    The original URL was http://www.marsta.nu/News.aspx?articleId=13563 but the article is archived now.

    Let me translate a few paragraphs:

    “Han flydde till Sverige från Nigeria för tre år sedan och fick uppehållstillstånd av politiska skäl.
    Märstabon Chinedu Ikechukwu, 37, har röstat för första gången i sitt nya hemland och han är säker på sitt val.
    – Jag har röstat på Sverigedemokraterna, säger han. Därför att Sverige måste tänka på sin framtid och inte ta in alltför många flyktingar. Det kan sluta med en katastrof.
    [- – -]
    Han är utbildad apotekare i hemlandet och har hunnit jobba som apoteksassistent i Umeå.
    [- – -]
    Han tycker inte det är kontroversiellt att rösta på ett parti som av många uppfattas som främlingsfientligt. SD behöver förklara för väljarna mer vad konsekvenserna kan bli om Sverige tar in för många flyktingar som landet inte kan ta hand om, säger han.

    – Sverigedemokraterna vill bara försvara sitt land för framtiden, för sina barn, värna om landets nationalitet, det är inget fel med det. Om vi inte är försiktiga kan Sverige bli ett land som flyktingar flyr från. Det kan gå fort. Se hur det blivit i Malmö.”

    Translation (sorry for possible bad, “Swenglish” translation):

    He fled to Sweden from Nigeria three years ago and was granted political asylum for political reasons. The 37 year old Märsta resident Chinedu Ikechukwu has voted for the first time in his new homeland and he is sure he chose the right party.

    I have voted for the Sweden Democrats, he says. Because Sweden should care for its future and not bring in too many refugees. It might end with a disaster.
    [- – -]
    He has ha pharmacist degree from his homeland and has worked a little as an assistant pharmacist in Umeå.
    [- – -]
    He doesn´t think that it´s controversial to vote for a party which many people consider as xenophobic. SD has to explain to the electorate what the consequences may be if Sweden brings in too many refugees which the country can´t take care of, he says.

    The Sweden Democrats just want to defend their country for the future, there is nothing wrong with that. If we are not careful Sweden may become a country which people will flee. It may happen fast. Look what has happened in Malmoe.”

    (Malmoe, or Malmö in Swedish, is a town in Sweden with about 250,000 inhabitants where a majority now are immigrants and where firefighters, ambulances and policemen can´t enter typical immigrant ghettoes without backup. The economy of Malmoe has deteriorated and the town now depends on heavy subsidies from other parts of the country.)

    I think that parties and politicians in Europe and North America that want to reduce the immigration must make the immigrants and non-whites understand that the economy and social stability won´t improve if you bring in lots of immigrants. A few coloured people understand that by themselves. I think that those who want to reduce the immigration should try to persuade politicians and parties that want to reduce immigration to use these people in campaigns that are targeting coloured voters. In the US, Trump could try to co-operate with the Hispanic “We are the victims” anti-immigration group. Asians, who generally are more affluent than Hispanics and blacks should be persuaded to vote for the Republican candidate Trump although I think that poor people who compete with Mexican immigrants for menial jobs are those who are most affected by immigration, at least in the short and medium term. Coloured people should for rational reasons benefit if moderate anti-immigration parties and politicians rule. They will not be better off if the US and Europe are transformed into a new Mexico or a new Middle East/Africa, respectively. Their ability to consume things will not improve because of that, but rather the opposite. Some coloured people understand that. And we should make more coloured people understand that.

    1. Sweden is dying….killed by itself…..Sweden is a lost cause……..todays Swedes destroyed their own country and culture.shut the lights out on Sweden….

      1. The black guy in the http://www.marsta.nu interview seems to have realized that Sweden was headed south and wished to slow down that process so that he would be able to live the rest of his life in a country that didn´t resemble Nigeria too much.

        Unfortunately too few immigrants realize that Sweden won´t be a nicer country if we bring in more of their fellow-countrymen. On the other hand too few Swedes don´t realize that as well.

        The reason why Sweden has granted more permanent residence permits than other European countries is probably that we got the worse media ownership structure in Europe. The worst – and largest – “Swedish” media owner company, the Bonnier group, bought the local newspaper Ystads Allehanda when the mayor of Sjöbo, Sven-Ollle Olsson, in 1988 announced that there would be a referendum on settling refugees in Sjöbo. The No to refugees camp won the referendum with 67.5 % of the votes. However, after e few years Ystads Allahanda and the big media managed to oust Sven-Olle Olsson. After that the Sjöbo municipality began to accept forced settling of refugees in Sjöbo. Nowadays, every little municipality is forced to accept refugees which the government decides to dump there. They have an explicit strategy to make every little remote village “multi cultural”. They want lots of immigrants in every part in Sweden so that rural areas won´t ask for independence in the future in order to separate themselves from the new Sweden which the big media have created. In the past they called this “Hela Sverige-strategin” (“The Entire Sweden Strategy”). Nowadays they don´t have a specific name for this strategy.

    2. Of course, blacks don’t want to loose their privilege. Their royal, blond treatment, if anything decent is even left there. They are not into giving away like dumb whites are. Once “in,” they believe they are entitled to all, above hosts. Maybe your son-in-law can take you to his tribe.

      1. Blacks, browns and Jews are getting scared as whites are wising up to them and starting to regain a pro-white backbone. This means an end to their freebies and entitlements. At least I hope so. I’m tired of whites constantly on the retreat and not fighting back. This needs to end soon!

  6. 1) SPEAK: If Liberals cannot get their policies past voters, is it moral for Liberals to change the electorate?

    2) Award state electoral votes by congressional district. As do Maine and Nebraska. Problem solved. It matters not how many legal and illegal “pre-citizens” Democrats import into NYC, LA, whereever.

  7. The entire planet is screwed. In a Wall
    Street Journal article it is predicted that
    within the next 20 to 25 years 40% of
    rhe planet will be black, the next largest will be south asian, and the rest is anybodys guess. I believe from I researched, European whites are about
    7% of the worlds population unless
    someone has a more accurate number. I consider liberal leftist whites
    as nonwhite.

  8. Well, Trump problem is not only nonwhite voters. It’s also stupid white voters. Treating white voters like a unified voting block (like are other races) is against the data.

    All New England (except for the State of New York), Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon and Washington are all very solidly white states. And solidly democrat too (except New Hampshire), because most of these whites are blind liberals.

    Higher white turnouts in Alabama won’t do anything, it’s already a state that Trump will win anyway.

    Key states : Florida, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Oregon (yes, yes, this is a purple state this election, mark my words), Iowa, Michigan.

    I prefer to consider New Mexico and Nevada lost already.

    1. that’s the problem. White states are usually liberal leaning, except for Idaho or Montana or Wyoming. I think if Trump doesn’t get in, whites in the North American continent’s best option is for racial secession of some sort.

  9. Ditch the crooks in Washington. Destroy the Federal Reserve:kick OUT the banksters. The US needs to be governed as independent individual states. There must be only minimal local taxation to support your OWN PEOPLE! 1776; That will solve the problem,

  10. Just like in Europe and other white lands. If whites do not get what they want politically, what are they prepared to do? When it’s obvious that the political system is set against us, what are these millions of angry disillusioned whites going to do?

    1. Still most of our people are not aware of the danger we face. To start we need to educate them. Give then the URL of newobserveronline and similar websites. Youtube videos are good because people tend to watch rather than read. Also start to organize ourselves into likeminded local groups which will expand into larger regional groups.The traitors must be identified and their plans must be exposed. Boycott firms who are sympathetic to Israel. Boycott the banks. Local credit unions are an alternative. We must starve this beast of its funds, although it can print as much of the worthless paper money as it wants.

      1. Tried mentionint the New Observer Online in the Express today. Wouldn’t accept it. Ended up with (eventually) new observer. Are the controlled media worried about the truth or what?

        1. I tried twice to post a link to TNO on the ‘Campaign for an Independent Britain’ website. I would have thought that the very illuminating information on what’s actually going on within Europe right now would be beneficial to the ‘Leave’ side. Apparently not.

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