The Washington Post is the first major “mainstream” media outlet to admit that Donald Trump—or any candidate who does not bow to nonwhite political demands—faces a nearly impossible task of winning the US Presidential election.
Previously, only the New Observer had pointed out that the US’s current racial voter demography, combined with the electoral college system, posed huge hurdles which might only just be overcome with an unprecedentedly high white voter turnout.
Trump’s electoral college problem: he can win all the states marked in red, and still lose the election to Clinton.
In a May 2016 article titled “Republicans have a massive electoral map problem that has nothing to do with Donald Trump,” the Washington Post said that a likely Republican Party loss in November has to do with “demographic problems centered on the GOP’s inability to win any large swath of nonwhite voters.”
The Washington Post points out that
“many Republicans—particularly in Washington—are already preparing to blame a loss this fall, which many of them view as inevitable, on the divisiveness of Trump. That’s not entirely fair to Trump, though.”
The election map problems, the article continues, have “very, very little to do with Trump or even Cruz.
“Instead they are, largely, demographic problems centered on the GOP’s inability to win any large swath of nonwhite voters.
“New Mexico, a state in which almost half the population is Latino, is the ur-example here.
“In 2004, George W. Bush won the Land of Enchantment in his bid for a second term. (His margin over John Kerry was 588 votes.)
“Eight years later, Barack Obama won the state by 10 points over Mitt Romney; neither side targeted it in any meaningful way.
“What has become increasingly clear is that any state with a large or growing nonwhite population has become more and more difficult for Republicans to win. Virginia and North Carolina, long Republican strongholds, have moved closer and closer to Democrats of late. (Obama won both states in 2008 and carried Virginia in 2012.),” the Washington Post said.
“At the same time as these states have grown friendlier to Democrats, there are very few states that are growing increasingly Republican. Wisconsin and Minnesota are two, but neither is moving rapidly in Republicans’ favor just yet.
“What you are left with then is an electoral map in which the Democratic nominee begins at a significant advantage over the Republican one. (It is the obverse of the massive Republican electoral college edge of the 1980s.) And that edge is totally distinct from any individual candidate and his/her strengths or weaknesses. “
“The Republican map problem goes deeper than Trump — or any one candidate. Blaming Trump for a loss this November not only misses the point but could ensure that Republicans are doomed to repeat history in 2020.”
The article goes on to analyze the math of the problem:
“Why is that important? Because if Clinton wins Florida and carries the 19 states (plus D.C.) that have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in each of the last six elections, she will be the 45th president. It’s that simple.
“And here’s the underlying math. If Clinton wins the 19 states (and D.C.) that every Democratic nominee has won from 1992 to 2012, she has 242 electoral votes. Add Florida’s 29 and you get 271. Game over.
“The Republican map is decidedly less friendly. There are 13 states that have gone for the GOP presidential nominee in each of the last six elections. But they only total 102 electorate votes. That means the eventual nominee has to find, at least, 168 more electoral votes to get to 270. Which is a hell of a lot harder than finding 28 electoral votes.”
The Washington Post’s base math is completely correct. However, they have ignored the one factor which could change the map, and that is a dramatically increased white voter turnout.
If Trump manages to boost white voter turnout to an unprecedented high, then he stands a chance of winning the key swing states he needs—Ohio, Indiana or Virginia—to win the electoral college.
The only real question of the upcoming election is therefore how many whites will turn out to vote.
However, even then, realists should bear in mind that the racial electoral map is growing darker with each year, and at least 800,000 new nonwhite voters are added to the voters’ list every twelve months.
These new voters are all the product of legal immigration, and if Trump does win a first term—and does not address this critical issue—there may not be a second term.